# The Untapped Role of AI in Military Decision-Making | Emelia Probasco

**By:** Emelia Probasco  
**Published:** 2026-09-11T14:02:14.415Z  
**Source:** [LinkedIn](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/emelia-probasco-4448406_the-untapped-role-of-ai-in-military-decision-making-ugcPost-7504177488244232193-G6kn)

---

Emelia Probasco’s Post

                
    

    
      

    
        
          
            

    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    

    
            
      
      
        
            
              Emelia Probasco
            
        

    

  
        
        

          
              

    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    

      

      
            
            
  
    Twenty-five years ago today, the attacks of 9/11 set in motion two decades of coalition warfare, including the first and only invocation of NATO's Article 5. It seems a fitting day to release our report on AI-decision support systems (AI-DSS) in coalition operations.
 
This is the second in our series on AI-DSS. The first looked at applications "Beyond Targeting" and the next will examine applications up-echelon.
 
Our aim across these studies is to anchor and calibrate the debate over military applications of AI: to be honest about the shortcomings and pain points operators face today, to examine where AI could actually make a difference, and to make sure adopters understand the new risks that come with adoption.
 
This paper owes thanks to many people, especially the servicemembers who shared their experiences, the government leaders who shared their visions, the military operations and AI researchers digging into these questions, the industry members building these tools, our collaborators at Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory, our Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET) and external reviewers, and the Smith Richardson Foundation and US Army for supporting this work.

Thanks also to: DoW Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Office (CDAO), Defense Innovation Unit (DIU), National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, Task Force Maven NATO, NATO - Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE), U.S. European Command, U. S. Central Command (USCENTCOM), U.S. Pacific Command, Chris Elder, Aditi Kumar, MORSE Corp, T.S. Allen, Akash J., Christopher Kirchhoff, Ph.D., Radha Iyengar Plumb, Ellen Lord, Margaret Palmieri, Jack Shanahan, Mike Siegl, Brian B.han, Mike Siegl, Brian B., Kyle Crichton, Julie George, PhD, Klaudia Klonowska, Igor Mikolic-Torreira, Stephen Tankel, Joe OCallaghan, Christine Fox, Alan Brown, and Toni Matheny

  

        

        
            
      
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    

    
          
            
    Emelia, the AI-DSS/coalition interoperability challenges you discuss (COP, targeting, foreign disclosure, language) track closely with what I've been working on. A key challenge is also appropriate human judgment in targeting decisions, which I address in a recent paper and propose HMT Assurance Card--a practical framework for operationalizing "appropriate human judgment" including across coalition AI-DSS. https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-review-of-the-red-cross/article/preparation-gap-ihl-humanmachine-teaming-and-assurance-in-military-ai-systems/76097D37F7E18C6D792B4A0DA63D11E9

  

            
      
          

          
        

      

          
            
    This looks like extremely important research, Emelia. I’m really looking forward to reading and learning from it. I hope all is well and that our paths cross again in the near future.

  

            
      
          

          
        

      

          
            
    Looking forward to reading this one Emelia Probasco! 

  

            
      
          

          
        

      

          
            
    Great work on this piece, Emelia!

I’d add that the biggest threat in the AI era isn’t AI. It’s hesitation.

Throughout human history, every major technological revolution has been met with fear and skepticism.

Yet every era was ultimately defined by the early adopters who embraced the new technology and went on to dominate industries, win wars, and shape the future.

The AI revolution will be no different. Exciting times ahead!

  

            
      
          

          
        

      

          
            
    The answers were built over 160 years ago with Helmuth Von Moltke. Binary tech didn't offer "hold your fire" to the machine. It was an Acquisitions decision - not engineering.

Agentics promote policy advisory into eternity. Machines that do not error - exist. Machines that need no policy advisor - exist. The ecosystem of governance will never allow the machine into the room. Policy advisors wouldn't be needed.

But here's where it counts - other countries are seeing the risk sheet of agentics. United States just wants more broken machines and more "policy advisors".

  

            
      
          

          
        

      

          
            
    Congrats on the great report!